Throughout history, nations that controlled the dominant strategic domain shaped the international balance of power. Great empires once competed for control of the seas, later for mastery of the skies, and today an entirely new frontier has emerged as the decisive high ground of the twenty-first century: outer space.
Space is no longer merely a destination for scientific exploration. It has become an operational military domain upon which nearly every aspect of modern civilization depends. Communications, financial transactions, navigation, weather forecasting, intelligence collection, missile warning, precision-guided weapons, and even the synchronization of electrical grids rely heavily on satellites orbiting hundreds of kilometers above Earth. Consequently, any nation capable of controlling—or denying access to—space gains an extraordinary strategic advantage.
Recognizing this transformation, the United States established the United States Space Force (USSF) in December 2019 as the nation's sixth independent military branch. While some initially dismissed the organization as symbolic, its creation reflected a profound shift in American strategic thinking. Washington concluded that space had become a contested warfighting domain requiring specialized doctrine, dedicated personnel, and long-term investment comparable to land, sea, air, and cyberspace.
The mission of the Space Force extends well beyond launching satellites. It protects American space assets, provides space-based intelligence to military commanders, monitors missile launches around the world, supports GPS navigation, safeguards military communications, and develops capabilities designed to deter adversaries from attacking critical orbital infrastructure. In modern warfare, virtually every military operation depends on reliable space support.
The United States, however, is not alone in recognizing the strategic value of space.
Russia has maintained military space capabilities since the Soviet era and currently conducts most of its operations through the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). Moscow views space as an extension of the battlefield rather than a purely civilian environment. Russian military doctrine places significant emphasis on denying an adversary access to satellite communications, navigation systems, and intelligence platforms during armed conflict.
To achieve this objective, Russia has invested heavily in anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles capable of physically destroying satellites in orbit. It has also developed electronic warfare systems capable of jamming satellite signals, ground-based laser systems designed to interfere with optical sensors, and so-called "inspector satellites" that maneuver close to other spacecraft and could potentially interfere with or damage them. Western defense analysts increasingly view these capabilities as part of Russia's broader strategy to offset conventional military disadvantages by targeting the technological systems upon which NATO forces depend.
China has arguably pursued an even more ambitious strategy.
Rather than treating space as a separate military function, Beijing integrates space operations within the People's Liberation Army through the Strategic Support Force, which historically unified cyber operations, electronic warfare, intelligence, and space capabilities before later organizational reforms redistributed some of those responsibilities. This integrated approach reflects China's belief that future conflicts will be won through information dominance rather than numerical superiority alone.
China's space program has expanded at an extraordinary pace during the past two decades. It has developed advanced satellite constellations, independent navigation through the BeiDou system, reusable launch technologies, sophisticated reconnaissance satellites, lunar exploration missions, and an operational space station. Simultaneously, it has invested in counterspace capabilities including direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons, co-orbital systems, electronic warfare technologies, cyber operations, and directed-energy research.
Beijing understands that modern military forces cannot function effectively without uninterrupted access to space-based infrastructure. Consequently, degrading an opponent's satellites may provide strategic advantages without immediately escalating to large-scale conventional warfare.
This growing competition illustrates an important reality: future wars may begin in orbit long before soldiers meet on the battlefield.
If communication satellites are disabled, military commanders lose secure communications. If GPS satellites are compromised, precision-guided weapons become significantly less accurate. If missile-warning satellites are blinded, governments may lose valuable minutes needed to respond to strategic attacks. Financial systems, aviation, maritime navigation, emergency services, and civilian telecommunications would also experience severe disruptions.
Space has become an indispensable component of national resilience.
The strategic importance of controlling space extends beyond military competition. Commercial satellites now provide internet connectivity, disaster monitoring, agricultural analysis, climate observation, global logistics, scientific research, and communications for billions of people. Private companies have dramatically increased the number of satellites in orbit while reducing launch costs, making space increasingly central to global economic activity.
As commercial and military interests become more intertwined, governments face new challenges regarding space traffic management, orbital congestion, cybersecurity, and the protection of privately owned infrastructure during armed conflict.
International law has struggled to keep pace with these developments.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty established important principles prohibiting national sovereignty over celestial bodies and banning weapons of mass destruction in orbit. However, the treaty was negotiated during an era when space activity remained limited primarily to government exploration programs. It offers relatively little guidance regarding cyber operations against satellites, anti-satellite weapons, commercial mega-constellations, autonomous spacecraft, or emerging military technologies.
As a result, strategic competition increasingly outpaces international regulation.
The United States advocates preserving freedom of access to space while strengthening deterrence against hostile actions. Russia and China have publicly supported various arms-control initiatives while simultaneously expanding capabilities that many Western analysts characterize as counterspace weapons. This contradiction highlights one of the defining challenges of modern strategic competition: technological development advances far more rapidly than international diplomacy.
Some analysts have compared today's space competition to the naval arms races of previous centuries. Just as control of the oceans once determined commercial prosperity and military influence, control of the orbital environment may increasingly determine geopolitical power during the coming decades.
Yet complete "control" of space is unlikely in the traditional sense. Unlike territory on Earth, space is vast, dynamic, and accessible to multiple actors simultaneously. The objective is therefore less about permanent dominance and more about ensuring freedom of operation while preventing adversaries from denying that same freedom.
Maintaining this balance will require sustained investment in resilient satellite constellations, space domain awareness, cyber defense, rapid launch capabilities, international partnerships, and legal frameworks capable of reducing the risk of conflict in orbit.
The strategic significance of space will only continue to grow. Nations that fail to protect their orbital infrastructure may find themselves vulnerable not only militarily but economically and technologically. Conversely, those capable of securing reliable access to space will possess decisive advantages across virtually every dimension of national power.
Throughout history, the highest ground has almost always belonged to those who prevailed. In the twenty-first century, that high ground no longer overlooks a battlefield on Earth—it circles the planet at thousands of miles per hour. The competition to secure it has already begun, and its outcome may shape the global balance of power for generations to come.
AFDES publishes independent research and strategic analysis on democracy, governance, public policy, international affairs, and civic institutions.